Now that Castro has officially announced that he is retiring as the President of Cuba and will not be seeking re-election, what will change in Cuba?
My opinion is that his brother Raul will become the new elected President of Cuba and not much will change. I certainly doubt that anything will change in the relations between Cuba and the U.S. as long as a Castro remains in power in Cuba. Perhaps once Fidel dies Raul will feel free to make some small changes in Cuba.
He has made comments about taking small steps towards more openness and economic reforms in Cuba but as long as Fidel remains alive I seriously doubt that he will be bold enough to actually make any real changes. I also doubt that the ministers and other high level members of the government would allow any real changes to take place. A full and sweeping change of guard will have to take place before Cuba sees any real and significant social or economic changes take place.
Perhaps some time in the next 20 years, as the old guard dies off and new blood takes power, Cuba will begin to see more openness in their society and economics and the extreme poverty that grips the population will start to turn around. As it stands right now Cubans are not even allowed to have internet service in their homes and must go to a cafe or other public place in order to access a service that people in most industrialized countries take for granted.
Eventually Cuba will have to change if it is to survive. Oppressed people are not productive people and for Cuba's economy to grow and flourish a certain level of openness must be introduced there. Fidel's stepping down may be a very early first step towards Cuba's eventual turn around.
But they have a long road ahead of them and I suspect it won't be an easy one.